Start with what you know.
Put costs, benefits, and timing into plain-language assumptions. Use low, likely, and high where a single number won’t do.
For finance & strategy / Decision support
Make consequential decisions with the uncertainty left in.
Build an investment case you can examine. Model uncertain costs, benefits, and timing. Understand the range of returns—and the assumptions that could change the decision.
01 / InputsExplicit assumptions
02 / AnalysisReproducible results
03 / DecisionA record of your reasoning
A little room for uncertainty
One estimate.
Many possible outcomes.
A project’s return depends on things you don’t know yet. Give those assumptions room to vary, and see the range they could produce.
A little uncertainty can change the whole picture. Move across the curve, or tap to give it a new shape.
A field of possibilitiesA little balance
Lower outcomesHigher outcomes
The approach
An investment case.
Open to scrutiny.
Work through the questions behind a recommendation: what are we assuming, what could change, and why does this decision make sense?
Understand what could change the case.
Explore the range of modeled returns, how often your goal is met, and which assumptions contribute most to uncertainty.
Save the reasoning behind your decision.
Save the model, results, and rationale behind a decision. Revisit what you knew when you made it.
For the decisions on your desk
Will the time saved
justify the investment?
Take a proposed automation project. The setup cost is fairly clear. Adoption, hours saved, and the time to get there are less certain.
Model those assumptions together to explore whether the benefits could outweigh the costs.
Illustrative project / Process automation
Start with the questions that matter.
- The investment
- Setup, training, and ongoing costs
- The potential benefit
- Hours saved and the value of that time
- The uncertainty
- How quickly people adopt it, and how much time it saves
Explore the range of returns. See which assumptions deserve a closer look.
See how a model becomes a decisionPut your assumptions to work
Your next decision deserves
more than a best guess.
Start with a project you’re considering.
Make the assumptions explicit. Explore what could change.
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