Make assumptions explicit.
Define costs, benefits, timing, and the relationships between them. Start with a guided model; use advanced formulas when you need them.
About / A little intellectual honesty
A recommendation is stronger when you can examine the reasoning.
Nullius helps finance and strategy teams think through project investments under uncertainty. Make the assumptions visible, explore possible returns, and keep a record of why you decided.
The method
From assumptions
to an informed decision.
Explore possible outcomes.
Run reproducible simulations and examine possible outcomes, goal attainment, and sources of uncertainty. Results depend on the assumptions you put in.
Leave a record.
Finalize a projection with its exact model, run settings, results, and decision rationale. An editable alternative stays separate from the saved decision.
Nullius in verba
Take nobody’s word for it.
Ours included.
Inspect the assumptions and calculations behind a result, then change the inputs to explore a different view. You should be able to understand how a model reached its answer.
Simulated outcomes are possibilities under a model, not promises or observed evidence.
Build your first model